Holy Bull Stakes preview for ThoroFan

Once again, I have been called into duty by the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance to pontificate my handicapping wisdom on the ThoroFan website for this Sunday’s Holy Bull Stakes (G3).

My analysis is often long-winded (this one is 2,514 words long), but I went three for four picking winners in ThoroFan’s Handicapper’s Corner last year, including a dead-on call of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) stretch drive and the giving out of 20-1 shot Exhi in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2). Eventually, it seems I get to some good stuff.

So as not to give away any spoilers, I will not reveal here who I picked to win Gulfstream Park’s first graded Kentucky Derby prep of 2011, but I will say that if it all goes as planned, it should cash a nice ticket or two.

To read my picks and analysis for the Holy Bull Stakes, click here.


Filed under Commentary, Triple Crown

5 responses to “Holy Bull Stakes preview for ThoroFan

  1. Old Time Race Fan

    Nice job Joe. Well written and I certainly won’t argue with your picks…. but the eventual Derby winner at Beulah Park? Whoa! 🙂
    The other thing that needs to be said is how come every year the race has to have 20 entrants? There is now the annual guessing game as to how much graded earnings a horse will need to enter the Derby. However what isn’t said is how come some of these nags enter in the first place. I know that there is the occasional Mine that Bird, etc. However every year there are at least a half dozen entries that really do not belong there. It changes the complexion of the race for the true contenders IMO.
    Anyway no matter what, it is a great time of year to have a dream, as you say. And I must admit that the 20 horses makes for some great payoffs. Last year I took home an exacta of $151 that did not seem all that hard. And the tri’s and supers light up the board.

  2. mibredclaimer

    Thanks! Hey, one of these days a Beulah-based Kentucky Derby winner is bound to happen. Just a few years ago, a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner could never win the Derby and Street Sense killed that myth. It’s time to tackle new frontiers!

    People like to see their horses run in the Derby, even if their chance is minimal. As long is that is the case, we will see full fields. Mine That Bird’s success just made it that much worse.

    Just like the playoffs in the big four sports, there are always teams that get hot early, then back into the playoffs at the expense of the hot, dangerous team at the end. Sure, the hot team has a legitimate complaint, but at the same time, a lot of the last horses out are either ones who repeatedly tried and failed in past Derby preps (See: Pleasant Prince last year) or horses with three or four starts and one try in graded company (See: Dunkirk). I don’t have much pity for either of those camps. In fact, they usually end up making more money than the worn out Derby horses in the summer and fall stakes races, so it all shakes out in the end.

    I hit last year’s Derby exacta too, if just for a buck. Made my day, regardless. Enjoy the races this weekend!

  3. Joe,

    I see it just about the way you do, but if Sweet Ducky isn’t fast enough Black N Beauty may go coast to coast.

    BTW – I do think the $240,000 winner’s share will be enough to get someone into the Derby starting gate, but time will tell.

  4. ragman

    I think the 6-1 ml is just a dream. All the wiseguys pile in.

  5. mibredclaimer

    Tony Bada Bing,
    I could definitely see that happening. It’s always hard to tell what you are going to get in a one-turn mile race full of horses with dreams of going a mile and a quarter.

    As for the earnings situation, if a horse that came in with zero earnings won the race, then finished last in every start after, it would probably put him on the cusp, especially with more and bigger stakes than ever before. Still, I admit that’s kind of a stretch. I probably could have worded it better, but I’ll get ’em next time.

    Dialed In will probably get a lot of wiseguy love, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stay at passable odds. For as much love as he will get, people feel just as good, or better, about Mucho Macho Man and Gourmet Dinner. I think you’ll see that pair around the 5-2 range, while Dialed In goes around 4-1. Not great, but not terrible, either.

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