The Haiku Handicapper: 2010 Belmont Stakes

Can Stately Victor bounce back from a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby to win the Belmont Stakes? The world will find out on Saturday.

Test of champions/
Classic champs took the day off/
The Crown’s finale

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

#1 – Dave In Dixie
A Derby trail dud/
Trounced in a weak Ill. Derby/
Toss with no remorse

#2 – Spangled Star
Mid-Atlantic based
Well handled by weaker foes
Seems pretty outclassed

#3 – Uptowncharlybrown
New McLaughlin charge
Traffic often derails him
Live in the gimmicks

#4 – Make Music For Me
A lights-out closer
Derby try wins most races
Hard one to pin down

#5 – Fly Down
Dwyer Stakes winner
Owns two wins over First Dude
Live, but not likely

#6 – Ice Box
Became this field’s chalk
When he crossed Churchill’s wire
Shouldn’t disappoint

#7 – Drosselmeyer
Used to have some hype
Has yet to turn the corner
Doubt he’ll do it here

#8 – Game On Dude
Stomped in legit stakes
Blew away a weak Lone Star
Dude looks like a toss

#9 – Stately Victor
Wiseguys love upside
Hard to glean much from Derby
Could go either way

#10 – Stay Put
Comes off a class drop
Stakes tries close, but no cigar
Could break some tickets

#11 – First Dude
Better of the “dudes”
Comes off the race of his life
Not keen on this spot

#12 – Interactif
A Derby dropout
Dirt is his third best surface
Nice horse, but I’ll pass

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

How does it shake out?
Ice Box proves everyone right
Ten, three for the tri

Deal or No Deal – 2010 Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Eclipse Award finalist Noble's Promise is one suitcase to leave shut in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

People love action.

If they didn’t, we wouldn’t have bets like the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which requires horseplayers to forecast the winner of the classic race several months before it even draws.

It takes an awful lot of gusto to plunk down some hard-earned bones on such a risky venture. Each interest is like a numbered suitcase on the hit game show Deal or No Deal. Inside each one could be that million-dollar prize (a Derby winner at a better price than at post time) or just enough cash for the bus ride home (a Derby trail dud or injury defection).

From noon Friday to 6 p.m. Sunday, ambitious horseplayers will take their place on the proverbial stage before the 24 models holding numbered briefcases. The shadowy figure of the banker will be looming, asking players to accept his odds. Howie Mandel will be there, too. Whatever you do, don’t shake his hand.

The question is…Deal or No Deal?

Which entries in the first future wager pool appear to offer the best value? Which ones make it look like the banker is lowballing the contestants? Below are a few horses that fit into one of those categories.

Keep in mind these speculations are based solely on the morning line odds set by Churchill Donws handicapper Mike Battagalia. The odds can, and will, fluctuate according to the action in the pari-mutuel pools, which could negate some of my statements.

Also, unless otherwise noted, this is not an analysis of talent, but a projection of betting value. Just because a horse is labeled a “No Deal” does not mean I do not think it is capable of winning the Kentucky Derby, and vice versa.

For a complete list of the horses being offered in the Future Wager and their odds, a Thoroughbred Times story can be found here.

Deal

Vale of York
Odds: 30-1

Has a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner ever given odds this long in the first Future Wager pool? I debated long and hard about which category to place the Irish-bred Eclipse Award finalist. On one hand, an awful lot of planets aligned to put Vale of York’s nose across the line first in the Juvenile. He benefitted from a European turf-friendly surface, was a first-time Lasix user and got the best of a multi-horse head bob. Also, there is talk of sending the Invincible Spirit (IRE) colt to Europe instead of testing the Derby trail, which gives this wager an added risk. On the other hand, let us consider a scenario. In all likelihood, Vale of York will take the road to Louisville going through Dubai. If he cleans up the preps and shows a pulse in the UAE Derby, there should be no reason to expect he won’t go off at less than 15-1 on the big day. This has the potential to be a high-risk, high-reward investment.

No Deal

Noble’s Promise
Odds: 15-1

Aside from earning the bragging rights that go along with picking the Kentucky Derby winner several months in advance, one of the appeals of the Future Wager is trying to get a horse at a better price than on race day. Unless Noble’s Promise puts the throttle on his three-year-old campaign and notches a couple highlight reel-caliber wins, odds in the mid-teens ought to be a reasonable expectation on the big stage.

More deals and duds can be found behind the jump.